From late March, we have surveyed to assess shifts in the consumer mindset and sentiment during the COVID-19 outbreak relevant to consumer staples and the restaurant industry.  Overall, the survey confirms a cynical economic outlook in consumers and a shift in spending towards food at home from food away from home.  COVID-19 continues to be a tailwind for grocery stores. While the restaurant industry is nowhere near to returning to pre-pandemic levels of service, our survey indicates a small but gradual improvement in consumer sentiment towards dining on-premise.  With lockdowns easing to some degree in all 50 states, it may be fair to say that things are moving towards ‘less bad’ for restaurants vis-à-vis consumer perception.

The survey began weekly from March 22^nd for ten weeks and is now conducted on a bi-weekly basis.  (Geography: U.S., n=500)

THE CONSUMER

• The survey results suggest that while COVID-19 concerns still run high, there has been a slight relaxation in anxieties regarding the pandemic.  In the first week of June, the share of respondents categorizing their concerns on COVID-19 as ‘extremely concerned’ dropped to a new low at 35% - an 18% drop from its peak (52%) during Week 2 (3/29).

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• Most respondents, at 68% as of Week 11/12 (6/7), have either ‘moderate’ or ‘extreme’ concerns on the pandemic.  There are bleak expectations on a return to normalcy, with more than 80% of respondents expecting COVID-10 effects to last two months or longer.

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• Given the dismal economic data, personal financial concerns are unsurprisingly slanted towards the ‘moderate’ and ‘extreme’ buckets at 27% and 25%, respectively

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GROCERY

• Food-at-home spend stabilized in Week 11/12, with the share of respondents categorizing their grocery spend as ‘the same’ hitting a new peak at 52%.  Purchasing behavior continues to skew towards more grocery spending at a total of 36% rather than less at 11%.

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RESTAURANTS

• The share of neutral responses on Delivery/Take-Out spend has maintained a plurality since Week 8, and the reactions positive towards increased Delivery/Take-Out spend to be outweighed by consumers electing to spend less.

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• Since the survey’s start, we have not seen a dramatic shift in consumers choosing to increase their spend on off-premise meals.

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• Dine-in spend sentiment continues to be a net negative.  Week 11/12 has the ‘significantly less’ bucket at a new low of 54%.  However, responses positive towards increased dine-in spend have not seen a meaningful change.

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• Since mid-May, the share of respondents who expect to make a purchase from a restaurant in the following week has increased from 34% to 41% in the most recent week. All states are in some phase of opening restaurants. Still, the percentage of consumers expecting to make a purchase has only reached parity with the percentage of consumers not planning to make a purchase.

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