Trulieve (TCNNF/TRUL) is on Hedgeye Cannabis Best Ideas List as a LONG

We track the Florida Office of Medical Marijuana Use along with our proprietary Florida competition tracker powered by Cannabiz Media on a weekly basis to get a sense of the ebbs and flows of market share in the state.  For anyone paying attention to FL, it has been obvious how strong of an operator TCNNF is. Despite having just a ~20% market share in units, over the last 6-months they have an average 50% market share in mgs THC sold, 25% mgs CBD sold (trending lower due to competition), and 46% in flower sold (54.7% last week). We continue to be confident in TCNNF’s ability to dominate the Florida market as some big competitors pull back their capex in the state.

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We also track license openings and those openings location in association with their competition. Below are two primary charts we look at, first ranking the competitive landscape from who has the least competitive locations to who has the most. One Plant is an insignificant player at the moment, with just one unit, but Parallel and Trulieve are number 2 and number 1 in the state in terms of units, so seeing them at the top of this list shows that their real estate strategy is paying off. We have also zoomed in on the trend in competitive activity around Trulieve’s locations. As the industry expands Trulieve has experienced some increase in competition, but nothing severe as the overall market continues to grow. Furthermore, the strength of the TCNNF is evident in the top-line performance.

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Please reach out to the extent you have any questions or would like the excel models for the data.