Having trouble viewing this email? View it in your browser

 
10/04/18 02:17 PM EDT
A Critical Update from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough
 

The combination of

  1. the Q118 lower-high for CPI and 
  2. US Retail Sales #Slowing from +5.2% y/y in DEC to +3.6% y/y in JAN

...imputes the first 1% handle on headline GDP going back to Q1 of 2017.

Our predictive tracking algo is now at +1.56% q/q SAAR (which really means our year-over-year GDP forecast drops from 2.72% to 2.58%).

We still think Reflation’s Rollover starts with the February data (reported in March), but the growth data is going to need to continue to accelerate to beat the cycle high y/y GDP growth rate of +2.50% in Q417.

Moreover, our current headline forecast is way low vs. Wall Street’s consensus forecast.

I show us vs. them in the charts below.

Oh, and the SP500 is signaling lower-highs for the 1st time in 15 months too.
KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)

 
Please visit http://sapp.hedgeye.com/feed_items/59750 for more information.
 
To unsubscribe and manage your research distribution, click here.