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10/04/18 02:17 PM EDT
A Critical Update from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

The combination of

  1. the Q118 lower-high for CPI and 
  2. US Retail Sales #Slowing from +5.2% y/y in DEC to +3.6% y/y in JAN

...imputes the first 1% handle on headline GDP going back to Q1 of 2017.

Our predictive tracking algo is now at +1.56% q/q SAAR (which really means our year-over-year GDP forecast drops from 2.72% to 2.58%).

We still think Reflation’s Rollover starts with the February data (reported in March), but the growth data is going to need to continue to accelerate to beat the cycle high y/y GDP growth rate of +2.50% in Q417.

Moreover, our current headline forecast is way low vs. Wall Street’s consensus forecast.

I show us vs. them in the charts below.

Oh, and the SP500 is signaling lower-highs for the 1st time in 15 months too.

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer





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