04/28/21 08:48 PM EDT
Real-Time Macro: ∞ Slope (A Note on Durable Goods)
 
 

Good morning.  

I trust everyone has properly warmed up and stretched their necks in preparation for a rousing Monday edition of everyone’s new favorite, anti-gravity analytical pastime of “rescale your positive Y-axis and ponder the existential metaphysics of vertical/infinite slope”

Today’s indulgence comes courtesy of Durable and Capital Goods Orders, proud sponsor of cycle low inventory-to-sales ratio’s, beneficiary of anomalous deadly respiratory virus catalyzed shifts in domestic consumption patterns and future recipient of ongoing demand-supply imbalance in the goods economy.

  • Headline Durable Goods = +0.5% M/M and accelerating to +25% Y/Y.
  • Durables Ex-Defense & Aircraft = +2.5% M/M and accelerating to +15.8% Y/Y.
  • Core Capital Goods = +0.94% M/M and accelerating to +11.6% Y/Y. 

Sometimes fabricated analysis just dilutes what’s clearly evident visually.  I knew this was coming.  You knew this was coming.  Next months comp is even easier. 

The Quad 2 COVID Comp RoC-ket ship remains ascendant.  


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)


(VIEW LARGER IMAGE)