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SubscribeOur presentation next week will cover a lot of ground and walk through the industry catalysts, scenario analysis, and reviews of stocks (estimates, valuations, upside / downside). Tune in to see what we are thinking.
On an absolute basis, the sector showed better returns in 1H 23 vs. 1H22, but the dispersion of those returns has been higher within the sector – selection has mattered. We expect 2H23 to bring a critical inflection for....
For 3 years, the bifurcation among the subsectors of the consumer space has been dramatic. Catalyzed by the pandemic and government action, Goods and Services trends have diverged unlike any period in US history.
Agriculture is as mature of an industry as industries get. We view the last ~15 years of robust sales in the Ag equipment market as an anomaly driven by ethanol / biofuel mandates and low / negative real interest rates...
Of late, the cruise stocks have caught a bid, but we’ll see if there’s more in the tank based on the trajectory of industry bookings and pricing. We continue to hold a Long Bias on RCL and NCLH, while CCL remains a Best Idea
OMF will be in the unenviable crosshairs of a credit headwind for the foreseeable future.
V/MA Refresh, FedNow, Durbin 2.0, Apple Pay
That TSLA has rallied year-to-date on falling margins/estimates, soaring inventory, repeated price cuts, weaker brand measures, increased competitive pressures, a significant/damning data leak, politicization of the ...
Covid brought about a lot of changes in the industry and as a result, market shares have shifted. What if these share shifts are permanent? We’ll assess potential winners and losers.
While the structural issues for Industrial Distributors remain, we think the outsized profits for building products suppliers is likely coming to an end…and perhaps a proper downcycle. Some aspects of the thesis, like...