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SubscribeBooking TJX Long Win. Adding ETSY to Long Bias. CPRI Higher. Still Short AS. Earnings Take: DECK, LAD, KER, ORLY, TSCO
Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built our monthly inflation nowcast with a directional accuracy of 90% - this is the "hit rate" with which it correctly predicts the sign of the second derivative of the Headline CPI index, that is whether inflation is accelerating or decelerating in a given month. In addition, we employ a multi-scenario outlook (i.e. base case, upside, and downside estimates) to span the probabilistic range of inflation in a given month.
Below we detail the release of the latest weekly Federal Reserve H.8 data, which summarizes select assets and liabilities of commercial banks in the United States. The Federal Reserve released this data on Saturday, October 12, 2024 and reports the data on a one-week lag; thus, this data will represent the balance sheet as of the week ending October 4, 2024.
Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built our monthly inflation nowcast with a directional accuracy of 90% - this is the "hit rate" with which it correctly predicts the sign of the second derivative of the Headline CPI index, that is whether inflation is accelerating or decelerating in a given month. In addition, we employ a multi-scenario outlook (i.e. base case, upside, and downside estimates) to span the probabilistic range of inflation in a given month.
The Justice Department convinced a federal court that Google violated the antitrust laws by entering exclusive default search distribution agreements with Apple, Samsung and other entities. The court is now considering potential remedies and the DOJ may seek structural as well as conduct remedies, including the possible mandated divestiture of Google's Chrome browser or other assets. We believe a major Google breakup is unlikely. The court is not empowered to redesign the overall search market to ensure it is optimally competitive. It is limited to addressing Google's misconduct and the source of competitive harms found to be illegal under the antitrust laws. Here, injury is traceable to illegal exclusivity agreements. There was no finding of competitive harm arising from Chrome, Android or other Google assets. The remedies proceeding will continue well into next year with a possible resolution by late summer.
The Financials Quad Playbook features the full Financials GICS Level 1-4 library as well as expanded conditioning sets together with our own custom financial subsector and industry groupings. The goal is to better enable investors to identify the best financial exposures on both sides of a trade during any one of the economic regimes signaled by the Hedgeye Macro team.
Over the past month, the most significant slowdown in observed sales differentials' can be seen in DRI, WING, and BROS.
We will walk through our 4Q24 Retail Themes