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SubscribeOur monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built our monthly inflation nowcast with a directional accuracy of 90% - this is the "hit rate" with which it correctly predicts the sign of the second derivative of the Headline CPI index, that is whether inflation is accelerating or decelerating in a given month. In addition, we employ a multi-scenario outlook (i.e. base case, upside, and downside estimates) to span the probabilistic range of inflation in a given month.
Discussion of what happened during the trial, the judge's questioning, and what we think will happen going forward.
Please join us tomorrow, Monday, September 30th at 2pm ET for a Black Book on heavy construction materials / aggregates and Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)