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SubscribeAgriculture is as mature of an industry as industries get. We view the last ~15 years of robust sales in the Ag equipment market as an anomaly driven by ethanol / biofuel mandates and low / negative real interest rates...
Of late, the cruise stocks have caught a bid, but we’ll see if there’s more in the tank based on the trajectory of industry bookings and pricing. We continue to hold a Long Bias on RCL and NCLH, while CCL remains a Best Idea
OMF will be in the unenviable crosshairs of a credit headwind for the foreseeable future.
V/MA Refresh, FedNow, Durbin 2.0, Apple Pay
That TSLA has rallied year-to-date on falling margins/estimates, soaring inventory, repeated price cuts, weaker brand measures, increased competitive pressures, a significant/damning data leak, politicization of the ...
Covid brought about a lot of changes in the industry and as a result, market shares have shifted. What if these share shifts are permanent? We’ll assess potential winners and losers.
While the structural issues for Industrial Distributors remain, we think the outsized profits for building products suppliers is likely coming to an end…and perhaps a proper downcycle. Some aspects of the thesis, like...
We believe we are in a new regime for global defense spending, with a ‘great powers competition’ increasingly evident. We’ll review the options on offer in the context of a cyclically challenged Industrials sector, with...
Substantial enterprise values remain for the LCIDs, PLUGs, and LAZRs, many of which are on their way to being the next NKLA. Many of the most obviously challenged cyclicals are only...
The catalyst calendar is skewing negative for CHH, and we see downside of 20-25% from here. Hopefully, you can join us for a full deck and presentation of our thesis.